Because transport in the port hinterlands heavily depends on roads with negative externalities, much social interest has been in modal shifts (MSs) to rail and shipping with lower environmental impact. Currently, leading industry sectors to ambitiously embrace technological innovations to decarbonize—consequently, in line with these changes, the significance of MSs should change; however, no previous studies have comprehensively presented the overall CO emissions and transport mode shares for future regional cargo transport. This paper presents a scenario analysis of CO emission reductions in the Japanese domestic hinterland of international maritime container transport based on future scenarios of technological innovation and change in shipper behavior. The simulation results using the global logistics intermodal network simulation model showed that up to 87% CO reduction is possible, and the primary driver for this is technological innovation. Moreover, the significance of MSs fluctuates depending on the advancement of technological innovation, suggesting that MSs hold a degree of import as a decarbonization measure during the transitional phase toward carbon neutrality (CN) as technological innovation advances. The results of this study, which fluctuated considerably by scenario and timing, have policy implications with respect to the path to be followed toward CN, including whether to promote MSs.

中文翻译：

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通过多式联运物流网络模拟对日本内陆运输二氧化碳减排进行情景分析

由于港口腹地的运输严重依赖具有负外部性的道路，因此社会对向环境影响较小的铁路和航运的模式转变（MS）很感兴趣。目前，领先的行业部门雄心勃勃地拥抱技术创新以实现脱碳——因此，随着这些变化，MS的重要性也应该发生变化；然而，之前的研究还没有全面介绍未来区域货物运输的总体二氧化碳排放量和运输方式份额。本文基于技术创新和托运人行为变化的未来情景，对日本国内腹地国际海运集装箱运输的二氧化碳减排进行了情景分析。使用全球物流多式联运网络仿真模型的仿真结果表明，二氧化碳减排高达87%是可能的，而其主要驱动力是技术创新。此外，MS的重要性根据技术创新的进步而波动，这表明随着技术创新的进步，MS作为一种脱碳措施在向碳中和（CN）过渡阶段具有一定的重要性。这项研究的结果因情景和时间的不同而波动很大，对于 CN 的路径具有政策影响，包括是否推广 MS。