The persistent increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, notably carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O), since the mid-20th century has been a key driver of significant climate alterations. This study investigates the complex feedback mechanisms that both influence and are influenced by global climate dynamics, soil processes, and GHG emissions. Our statistical approach incorporates correlation measures, highlighting the limitations of such analyses, namely their inability to confirm causality, sensitivity to outliers, and the exclusive capture of linear relationships. Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models reveal spatial variations in the relationship between environmental factors and GHGs, while Path Analysis aids in delineating direct and indirect influences among variables. The research pinpoints significant spatial heterogeneity in the impacts of economic and environmental factors on GHGs, underscoring the necessity of localized strategies for climate change mitigation and sustainable land management. This study also identifies potential threats to agricultural productivity due to soil degradation, which hinder climate adaptation efforts. Our findings advocate for a concerted global response to reduce GHG emissions and address the challenges posed by the interplay of climate change, soil dynamics, and GHG emissions.

中文翻译：

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研究碳排放、土壤和气候变化之间的长期关系：全球地球建模框架的见解


自 20 世纪中叶以来，温室气体 (GHG) 排放量，特别是二氧化碳 (CO2)、甲烷 (CH4) 和一氧化二氮 (N2O) 的持续增加，一直是气候发生重大变化的关键驱动因素。本研究调查了影响全球气候动态、土壤过程和温室气体排放以及受其影响的复杂反馈机制。我们的统计方法结合了相关性测量，突出了此类分析的局限性，即它们无法确认因果关系、对异常值的敏感性以及对线性关系的唯一捕获。地理加权回归（GWR）模型揭示了环境因素与温室气体之间关系的空间变化，而路径分析有助于描绘变量之间的直接和间接影响。该研究指出了经济和环境因素对温室气体影响的显着空间异质性，强调了缓解气候变化和可持续土地管理本地化战略的必要性。这项研究还确定了土壤退化对农业生产力的潜在威胁，这阻碍了气候适应工作。我们的研究结果主张全球采取协调一致的应对措施，减少温室气体排放，并应对气候变化、土壤动态和温室气体排放相互作用所带来的挑战。