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Drivers of Changes to the ENSO–Europe Teleconnection Under Future Warming
Geophysical Research Letters ( IF 5.2 ) Pub Date : 2024-05-14 , DOI: 10.1029/2023gl107957
J. D. Beverley 1 , M. Collins 1 , F. H. Lambert 1 , R. Chadwick 2, 3
Affiliation  

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection to Europe is projected to strengthen under global warming in most climate model simulations. However, given the current difference between recent observations and historical model simulations of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature trends, with models simulating an El Niño-like warming in recent decades which is in disagreement with observations, it is important to understand the relative contributions of changes to the teleconnection forcing and background state to the overall teleconnection change. Using idealized climate model experiments, we show that both the eastward shift of El Niño precipitation and background state changes make contributions to the overall teleconnection change. These results suggest that the ENSO–Europe teleconnection can be expected to strengthen under global warming, even if ENSO precipitation anomalies do not shift eastwards as currently projected. However, the magnitude of the strengthening may depend on how much of an eastward shift does occur.

中文翻译:

未来变暖情况下ENSO-欧洲遥相关变化的驱动因素

在大多数气候模型模拟中,预计在全球变暖的情况下,厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)与欧洲的遥相关将会加强。然而,考虑到热带太平洋海面温度趋势的近期观测结果与历史模型模拟之间存在差异,近几十年来模拟厄尔尼诺现象的模型与观测结果不一致,了解变化的相对贡献非常重要到远程连接强迫和背景状态到整体远程连接变化。通过理想化气候模型实验,我们表明厄尔尼诺降水东移和背景状态变化都对整体遥相关变化做出了贡献。这些结果表明,即使 ENSO 降水异常不会像目前预计的那样东移,ENSO 与欧洲的遥相关预计也会在全球变暖的情况下加强。然而,加强的幅度可能取决于东移发生的程度。
更新日期:2024-05-14
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