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Incubation Period and Serial Interval of Mpox in 2022 Global Outbreak Compared with Historical Estimates
Emerging Infectious Diseases ( IF 11.8 ) Pub Date : 2024-05-14 , DOI: 10.3201/eid3006.231095
Luis Ponce , Natalie M. Linton , Wu Han Toh , Hao-Yuan Cheng , Robin N. Thompson , Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov , Jonathan Dushoff

Understanding changes in the transmission dynamics of mpox requires comparing recent estimates of key epidemiologic parameters with historical data. We derived historical estimates for the incubation period and serial interval for mpox and contrasted them with pooled estimates from the 2022 outbreak. Our findings show the pooled mean infection-to-onset incubation period was 8.1 days for the 2022 outbreak and 8.2 days historically, indicating the incubation periods remained relatively consistent over time, despite a shift in the major mode of transmission. However, we estimated the onset-to-onset serial interval at 8.7 days using 2022 data, compared with 14.2 days using historical data. Although the reason for this shortening of the serial interval is unclear, it may be because of increased public health interventions or a shift in the mode of transmission. Recognizing such temporal shifts is essential for informed response strategies, and public health measures remain crucial for controlling mpox and similar future outbreaks.



中文翻译:

2022年全球疫情中Mpox的潜伏期和系列间隔与历史估计的比较

了解mpox传播动态的变化需要将关键流行病学参数的最新估计值与历史数据进行比较。我们得出了 MPOX 潜伏期和系列间隔的历史估计值,并将其与 2022 年爆发的汇总估计值进行了对比。我们的研究结果显示,2022 年疫情爆发时的汇总平均感染至发病潜伏期为 8.1 天,历史上为 8.2 天,这表明尽管主要传播方式发生了变化,但潜伏期随着时间的推移保持相对一致。然而,我们使用 2022 年的数据估计发病到发病的序列间隔为 8.7 天,而使用历史数据则为 14.2 天。尽管序列间隔缩短的原因尚不清楚,但这可能是由于公共卫生干预措施的增加或传播方式的转变。认识到这种时间变化对于制定明智的应对策略至关重要,而公共卫生措施对于控制麻疹和未来类似的疫情仍然至关重要。

更新日期:2024-05-15
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