We test the potential of Bayesian synthesis of upcoming multi-instrument data to extract orbital parameters and individual light curves of close binary supermassive black holes (CB-SMBH) with subparsec separations. Next-generation interferometers, will make possible the observation of astrometric wobbles in CB-SMBH. Combining them with periodic variable time-domain data from surveys like the Vera C. Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time, allows for more information on CB-SMBH candidates compared to standalone observational methods. Our method reliably determines binary parameters and component fluxes from binary total flux across long-term, intermediate, and short-term binary dynamics and observational configurations, assuming 10 annual observations, even in short period “q-accrete” objects. Expected CB-SMBH astrometric wobbles constructed from binary dynamical parameters might serve in refining observational strategies for CB-SMBH. Combination of inferred mass ratio, light curves of binary components, and observed photocenter wobbles can be a proxy for the activity states of CB-SMBH components.

中文翻译：

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闭合二元超大质量黑洞中天体测量摆动和总光曲线的贝叶斯综合


我们测试了即将到来的多仪器数据的贝叶斯综合的潜力，以提取具有亚秒差距的近双超大质量黑洞（CB-SMBH）的轨道参数和单独的光变曲线。下一代干涉仪将使在 CB-SMBH 中观测天体摆动成为可能。将它们与 Vera C. Rubin 时空遗产调查等调查中的周期性可变时域数据相结合，与独立观测方法相比，可以提供有关 CB-SMBH 候选者的更多信息。我们的方法可以可靠地从长期、中期和短期二元动力学和观测配置的二元总通量中确定二元参数和分量通量，假设每年进行 10 次观测，​​即使是在短期“q-acccrete”物体中。由二元动力学参数构建的预期 CB-SMBH 天体测量摆动可能有助于完善 CB-SMBH 的观测策略。推断的质量比、二元组分的光曲线和观察到的光中心摆动的组合可以作为 CB-SMBH 组分的活动状态的代理。